Just Perfect Markets

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares sank on Monday as the latest salvos in the Sino-U.S. trade war shook confidence in the world economy and sent investors steaming to the safe harbor of sovereign bonds and gold, while slugging emerging market currencies. But equity markets later pared some losses, with E-Minis for the S&P 500 turning positive, after U.S. President Donald Trump said China had contacted Washington overnight to say it wanted to return to the negotiating table. Speaking on the sidelines of a summit of major industrialized nations in France, Trump hailed Chinese President Xi Jinping as a great leader and said he welcomed his desire for a trade deal and for calm. On Friday Trump announced an additional duty on some $550 billion of targeted Chinese goods, hours after China unveiled retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. goods. Trump’s new tariff measures were announced after U.S. markets closed on Friday. But Wall Street had nose-dived earlier in the session after Trump said U.S. companies should “immediately start looking for an alternative to China”, in response to Beijing’s latest retaliation. At the G7 meeting in France over the weekend, Trump caused some confusion by indicating he may have had second thoughts on the tariffs. But the White House said on Sunday that Trump wished he had raised tariffs on Chinese goods even higher last week, even as he signaled he did not plan to follow through with a demand that U.S. firms close operations in China. The latest trade escalation overshadowed a pledge by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to “act as appropriate” to keep the U.S. economy healthy, although he stopped short of committing to rapid-fire rate cuts. The markets clearly believe the Fed will have to act more aggressively and are fully priced for at least a quarter-point cut in September and more than 120 basis points of easing by the end of 2020. The drop in yields swept the legs out from under the dollar, though it rallied steadily through the session thanks in part to heavy buying against emerging market currencies. At a joint news conference with French President Emmanuel Macron, Trump declined to comment on whether he would waive oil sanctions to get Iran to the negotiating table.
  • China’s onshore and offshore yuan pared back steep losses against the dollar on Monday, after comments by U.S. President Donald Trump eased some fears over the latest escalation in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Trump said Beijing had contacted U.S. trade officials overnight to say they wanted to return to the negotiating table, but China’s foreign ministry subsequently said it was not aware of any U.S. - China phone calls. Markets took Trump’s comments as a positive sign for chances for de-escalation after both sides announced additional tariffs on each other's goods over the weekend. Earlier Monday, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said that China is willing to resolve its trade dispute with the U.S. through "calm" negotiations and resolutely opposes the escalation of the conflict. At the G7 meeting in France over the weekend, Trump caused some confusion by indicating he may have had second thoughts on the tariffs, but the White House later clarified that the president’s only regret was not increasing tariffs more than he had already. Trump is now set to hold a joint news conference with French President Emmanuel Macron later on Monday. The latest trade escalation overshadowed a pledge by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to "act as appropriate" to keep the U.S. economy healthy, although he stopped short of committing to rapid-fire rate cuts. The markets clearly believe the Fed will have to act more aggressively and are fully priced for at least a quarter-point cut in September and more than 120 basis points of easing by the end of 2020.
  • Oil prices fell on Monday, pushing U.S. crude to the lowest in more than two weeks, as an intensifying trade war between the U.S. and China undermined confidence in global economic growth. Concerns about an economic slowdown are being fanned by a ratcheting up of trade tensions between the United States and China. The latest round of tariffs "will bring yet another dent to global growth," Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) said in a note. "We view risks of further escalation as meaningful." China's commerce ministry said late last week it would impose additional tariffs of 5% or 10% on a total of 5,078 products originating from the United States, including crude oil, agricultural products such as soybeans, and small aircraft. In retaliation, President Donald Trump said he was ordering U.S. companies to look at ways to close operations in China and make products in the United States. U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell told an annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming that the U.S. economy is in a "favorable place" and the Federal Reserve will "act as appropriate" to keep the current economic expansion on track." The remarks gave few clues about whether the central bank will cut interest rates at its next meeting. But exacerbating concern over the possibility of recession, U.S. manufacturing industries registered their first month of contraction in almost a decade. Hedge funds and other money managers raised their bullish wagers on U.S. crude to a three-month high in the latest week, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. U.S. energy companies cut the most oil rigs in about four months last week, with the rig count falling to the lowest since January 2018, as producers cut spending on new drilling and completions.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
26th August 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,539-1,550 1,555 1,562-1,570
Silver-XAG 17.90 18.50-18.90 19.50
Crude Oil 54.50-54.90 55.40 56.05-56.50
EURO/USD 1.1150 1.1250 1.1250-1.1290
GBP/USD 1.2250-1.2300 1.2350 1.2410
USD/JPY 106.10-106.50 107.00 107.60-108.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
26th August 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,526-1,516 1,509 1,500-1,489
Silver-XAG 17.50-17.00 16.80 16.50-15.90
Crude Oil 53.60-52.80 52.06 51.30-50.50
EURO/USD 1.1100-1.1050 1.1030 1.0990-1.0900
GBP/USD 1.2190-1.2160 1.2100 1.2065-1.2010
USD/JPY 105.60 105.00 104.60-104.00

Intra-Day Strategy (26th August 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

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Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1530.16/oz and low of US$1493.47/oz. Gold down by 1.932% at US$1526.79/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1410) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1526-1481 with risk below 1469, targeting 1532-1539-1550 and 1562-1570. Sell below 1532-1570 keeping stop loss closing above 1570, targeting 1526-1516-1500 and 1489-1481.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,526-1,516
S2     1,509
S3     1,500-1,489
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,539-1,550
R2     1,555
R3     1,562-1,570

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

67.193

Buy
20-DMA   1489.34 Buy
50-DMA  

1441.19

Buy
100-DMA   1368.09 Buy
200-DMA   1325.36 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   45.519 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   24.325 Buy

Silver - XAG

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Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$17.46/oz and low of US$16.96/oz. Silver settled up by 2.37% at US$16.41/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.50-15.90 targeting 17.90-18.50 and 18.90-19.50; stop breakage below 15.90. Sell below 17.90-19.50 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 17.50-17.00-16.80 and 16.50-15.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.50-17.00
S2     16.80
S3     16.50-15.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.90
R2     18.50-18.90
R3     19.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   69.191 Buy
20-DMA   16.88 Sell
50-DMA   16.09 Buy
100-DMA   15.44 Buy
200-DMA   15.32 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   73.246 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.358 Buy

Oil - WTI

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Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$55.51/bbl, intraday low of US$53.18/bbl and settled down by 2.68% to close at US$53.83/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 54.50-56.50 with stop loss at 56.50; targeting 53.60-52.80-52.05 and 51.30-50.50. Buy above 53.60-50.60 with risk daily closing below 50.60 and targeting 54.50-54.90-55.40 and 56.50-57.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     53.60-52.80
S2     52.06
S3     51.30-50.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     54.50-54.90
R2     55.40
R3     56.05-56.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.377 Sell
20-DMA   54.99 Buy
50-DMA   56.48 Buy
100-DMA   58.32 Sell
200-DMA   56.17 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   28.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.440 Sell

EUR/USD

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EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1051/EUR, high of US$1.1152/EUR and settled the day up by 0.590% to close at US$1.1143/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1293), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1320-1.1350. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1100-1.0850 with risk below 1.0850, targeting 1.1160-1.1200 and 1.1250-1.1290. Sell below 1.1150-1.1350 targeting 1.1130-1.1090 and 1.1005-1.0980 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1350.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1100-1.1050
S2     1.1030
S3     1.0990-1.0900

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1150
R2     1.1250
R3     1.1250-1.1290

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.585 Buy
20-DMA   1.1135 Sell
50-DMA   1.1206 Sell
100-DMA   1.1211 Sell
200-DMA   1.1281 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   64.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

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GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2193/GBP, high of US$1.2293/GBP and settled the day up by 0.233% to close at US$1.2277/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2250-1.2410 with targets at 1.2190-1.2160-1.2100and 1.2065-1.2010-1.1980 stop-loss should be below 1.2410. Buy above 1.2190-1.2010 with targets 1.2250-1.2300 and 1.2350-1.2410 with stop loss closing below 1.2010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2190-1.2160
S2     1.2100
S3     1.2065-1.2010

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2250-1.2300
R2     1.2350
R3     1.2410

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.307

Buy
20-DMA   1.2134 Sell
50-DMA   1.2388 Sell
100-DMA   1.2625 Sell
200-DMA   1.2774 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   76.175 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Sell

USD/JPY

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USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY105.24/USD and made an intraday high of JPY106.72/USD and settled the day down by 0.967% at JPY105.38/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 106.10-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 105.80-105.00 and 104.50-104.00. Long positions above 105.80-104.00 with targets of 106.50-107.00 and 107.60-108.00-109.05 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     105.60
S2     105.00
S3     104.60-104.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     106.10-106.50
R2     107.00
R3     107.60-108.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.684 Buy
20-DMA   106.46 Sell
50-DMA   107.40 Sell
100-DMA   108.79 Buy
200-DMA   109.88 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   45.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.467 Buy

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