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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks gained on Tuesday as equity investors prepared for an expected U.S. interest rate cut this week while the pound retreated to a 28-month low as heightened concerns about a no-deal Brexit gripped currency markets. The BOJ added it would ease "without hesitation" if the economy loses momentum for achieving the central bank's 2% inflation target. The U.S. Federal Reserve begins a two-day policy meeting later on Tuesday, at which it is widely expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points. If implemented, it would be the central bank's first rate cut in a decade. Prospective monetary easing by the Fed has been a key factor behind the recent bull run by global equities, particularly U.S. stocks, which have notched up record highs over the past month. Also drawing some attention were U.S.-China trade negotiations due to begin in Shanghai on Tuesday, although expectations for progress during the two-day meeting are low with the markets hoping the two sides can at least detail commitments for "goodwill" gestures. Sterling has already lost 1.7% this week as investors scrambled to price in the possibility that a last-minute agreement to avert a no-deal Brexit may not be realized under British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has said the Brexit divorce was dead. The British government said on Monday it assumed there would be a no-deal Brexit because a "stubborn" EU was refusing to renegotiate their departure.
  • The Japanese yen was little changed on Tuesday in Asia after the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policies unchanged. The central bank kept its short-term interest rate at -0.1% as expected. It also promised to keep the current ultra-low rates “for an extended period of time, at least through around spring 2020.” Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda will explain the central bank’s decision later in the afternoon. The GBP/USD pair was down 0.3% after the British government said overnight that it assumed a no-deal Brexit would happen as the "stubborn" EU refused to renegotiate the terms of the draft agreement made by former PM Theresa May. All eyes will be on the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decisions due on Wednesday in the stateside. The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by at least 25 basis point. The yen held near a three-week low on Tuesday as pared expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve cuts supported the dollar and ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting, which is seen as a key test for policymakers amid a global monetary easing cycle. The BOJ is expected to keep monetary policy on hold at a meeting ending later on Tuesday, but some investors say there is a chance Japan's central bank could change its forward guidance to reassure traders that rates will remain low. Against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar traded near a two-month high. The U.S. Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, but this is more likely to be a one-off than the first in a series of several rate cuts. The pound hit a new 28-month low early in Asia trade as investors grew increasingly nervous about the prospects of a no-deal Brexit under new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The Fed is forecast to cut its target interest rate range on Wednesday by 25 basis points to 2.00%-2.25%. Investors previously saw the chance of an even more aggressive 50-basis point cut, according to interest rate swaps, but these expectations have dissipated as data has shown the U.S. economy is not as weak as some feared. There is a growing risk of a no-deal Brexit where Britain exits the European Union without a trade deal in place. There is also a chance that new Prime Minister Johnson will call an early election.
  • Oil prices rose for a fourth day on Tuesday on optimism the U.S. Federal Reserve will this week cut interest rates for the first time in more than ten years, which should support economic and fuel demand growth in the world's biggest oil user. So-called dovish monetary policy in the United States, where the central bank reduces interest rates, would "support a continuation in global expansionary activities and fuel demand growth" for the second half of 2019, Benjamin Lu, an analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore, said in a note. U.S. central bankers will begin their two-day meeting later on Tuesday and are expected to lower borrowing costs for the first time since the depths of the financial crisis more than a decade ago. Economic growth in the United States slowed less than expected in the second quarter, strengthening the outlook for oil consumption but, elsewhere, disappointing economic data has increased concerns about slower growth. U.S. and Chinese negotiators meet this week for their first in-person talks since agreeing to a truce to their trade dispute at the Group of 20 meeting last month, with some optimistic that the discussions will help bridge the gap between the world's two largest economies and biggest oil consumers. However, Trump said China might not want to sign a trade deal until after the 2020 U.S. election. Supply risks are still a concern as tensions remained high around the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil passes. Tensions spiked between Iran and the West after Iranian commandos seized a British-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf this month in apparent retaliation for the capture of an Iranian tanker by British forces near Gibraltar.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th July 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,425-1,429 1,436 1,450-1,457
Silver-XAG 16.60-16.90 17.50 17.90
Crude Oil 57.50 58.10 59.20-60.50
EURO/USD 1.1150-1.1180 1.1210 1.1240-1.1280
GBP/USD 1.2190-1.2250 1.2300 1.2350-1.2410
USD/JPY 109.05 109.50-110.15 111.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th July 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,413-1,405 1,390 1,380
Silver-XAG 16.20-15.90 15.50 15.25-15.05
Crude Oil 56.50-56.07 55.50 54.90-54.00
EURO/USD 1.1130-1.1106 1.0950 1.0905
GBP/USD 1.2100-1.2065 1.1980 1.1950-1.1900
USD/JPY 108.40-108.00 107.60 107.00-106.50

Intra-Day Strategy (30th July 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

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Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1428.04/oz and low of US$1414.68/oz. Gold up by 0.521% at US$1426.57/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1303) and breakage below will call for 1296-1288. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1413-1382 with risk below 1390, targeting 1429-1436-1450 and 1457-1464. Sell below 1424-1464 keeping stop loss closing above 1470, targeting 1424 and 1409-1400-1390.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,413-1,405
S2     1,390
S3     1,380
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,425-1,429
R2     1,436
R3     1,450-1,457

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.388

Buy
20-DMA   1416.96 Buy
50-DMA  

1372.86

Buy
100-DMA   1331.82 Buy
200-DMA   1299.74 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   13.021 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   13.175 Buy

Silver - XAG

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Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$16.45/oz and low of US$16.32/oz. Silver settled up by 0.495% at US$16.44/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (15.00), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.20-14.50 targeting 16.50-16.90 and 17.50-17.90; stop breakage below 14.50. Sell below 16.50-17.90 with stop loss above 17.90; targeting 16.20-15.90-15.50 and 15.05-14.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.20-15.90
S2     15.50
S3     15.25-15.05

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.60-16.90
R2     17.50
R3     17.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   73.196 Buy
20-DMA   15.60 Sell
50-DMA   15.12 Buy
100-DMA   15.09 Buy
200-DMA   15.06 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   83.246 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.372 Buy

Oil - WTI

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Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$57.08/bbl, intraday low of US$55.83/bbl and settled up by 1.416% to close at US$57.04/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 56.50-60.50 with stop loss at 60.50; targeting 56.05-55.50 and 54.50-54.00. Buy above 56.05-54.00 with risk daily closing below 54.00 and targeting 56.50-57.50-58.10 and 59.20-60.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     56.50-56.07
S2     55.50
S3     54.90-54.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     57.50
R2     58.10
R3     59.20-60.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.821 Sell
20-DMA   57.65 Sell
50-DMA   56.91 Sell
100-DMA   59.30 Sell
200-DMA   57.20 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   47.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.267 Sell

EUR/USD

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EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1112/EUR, high of US$1.1150/EUR and settled the day up by 0.176% to close at US$1.1144/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.1349), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1320-1.1280. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1130-1.0905 with risk below 1.0905, targeting 1.1150-1.1210-1.1240 and 1.1280-1.1320. Sell below 1.1150-1.1280 targeting 1.1130-1.1105 and 1.0950-1.0905 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1105.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1130-1.1106
S2     1.0950
S3     1.0905

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1150-1.1180
R2     1.1210
R3     1.1240-1.1280

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.376 Buy
20-DMA   1.1236 Sell
50-DMA   1.1241 Sell
100-DMA   1.1243 Sell
200-DMA   1.1309 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   5.958 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Buy

GBP/USD

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GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2211/GBP, high of US$1.2382/GBP and settled the day down by 0.543% to close at US$1.2216/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2190-1.2410 with targets at 1.2100-1.2065 and 1.1980-1.1950-1.1900 top should be below 1.2410. Buy above 1.2100-1.2900 with targets 1.2190-1.2250 and 1.2300-1.2350-1.2410 with stop loss closing below 1.2200.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2100-1.2065
S2     1.1980
S3     1.1950-1.1900

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2190-1.2250
R2     1.2300
R3     1.2350-1.2410

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

25.107

Buy
20-DMA   1.2460 Sell
50-DMA   1.2582 Sell
100-DMA   1.2812 Sell
200-DMA   1.2849 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   2.175 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

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USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY108.55/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.82/USD and settled the day up by 0.0478% at JPY108.67/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (110.64), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.00-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 108.40-108.00-107.60 and 107.00-106.50. Long positions above 108.40-106.00 with targets of 109.05-109.50 and 110.00-111.00 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.40-108.00
S2     107.60
S3     107.00-106.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.05
R2     109.50-110.15
R3     111.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.936 Buy
20-DMA   108.16 Sell
50-DMA   108.40 Sell
100-DMA   109.74 Buy
200-DMA   110.56 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   90.58 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.022 Buy

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