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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares crept higher on Wednesday as the prospect of fresh Sino-U.S. trade talks drew a guarded welcome, while the euro hit lows on a range of counterparts amid speculation the European Central Bank was near to easing policy. Sentiment had been helped by a Bloomberg report that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer would travel to Shanghai next week for meetings with Chinese officials. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow on Tuesday called it a good sign and said he expected Beijing to start buying U.S. agriculture products soon. Not so welcome was news the U.S. Justice Department was opening an antitrust investigation of major digital tech firms and possible anticompetitive practices. Stocks are just a whisker away from all-time highs buoyed by expectations of a wave of policy stimulus by global central banks and a resulting sharp decline in bond yields. The ECB is thought likely to at least offer a nod to easier policy at its meeting on Thursday. The prospect of wide-scale central bank largesse helped take the sting out of the IMF's latest downgrade to its global growth forecasts
  • The British pound was little changed against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday in Asia following news that Boris Johnson was chosen as the new U.K. leader. Johnson, known for his hard-line stance on Brexit, was named Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party. Johnson defeated Jeremy Hunt by a margin of 2 to 1. Johnson said after the announcement on Tuesday that he would unite Britain. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar surged towards four-week highs on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump and Congress struck a deal to raise the debt ceiling, easing fears of the government defaulting. The dollar was also supported by news that the officials from the U.S. and China will begin in-person trade talks sometime next week, although reports suggested that it could take months at the minimum to agree on a trade deal. In other news, the International Monetary Fund reduced its global growth outlook for the second time this year. The world economy will expand 3.2% this year and 3.5% next year, the fund said in its latest quarterly World Economic Outlook released Tuesday. Both rates were down 0.1% from the funds’ April projections. “The projected growth pickup in 2020 is precarious, presuming stabilization in currently stressed emerging market and developing economies and progress toward resolving trade policy differences,” the IMF said. “The principal risk factor to the global economy is that adverse developments - including further U.S.-China tariffs, U.S. auto tariffs, or a no-deal Brexit - sap confidence, weaken investment, dislocate global supply chains, and severely slow global growth below the baseline,” the IMF said.
  • The euro slipped to a two-month low on Wednesday, as markets waited to gauge the European Central Bank's stance on policy amid bubbling expectations that it could eventually lower interest rates and join the global easing trend. The euro's decline has quickened ahead of the ECB's policy meeting on Thursday. While markets have pared their bets the central bank would cut rates by 10 basis points, they still expect dovish guidance, paving the way for easing in September. The euro was also seen weighed down as the pound slumped toward a two-year low after Boris Johnson on Tuesday won the contest to be the next British prime minister and raised the specter of a no-deal Brexit. Sterling was a touch lower at $1.2433, on track for its fourth straight day of losses and edging closer to $1.2382, the two-year trough brushed last week. The dollar hovered near a one-week high of 108.290 yen scaled overnight, supported by a rise in U.S. Treasury yields as investor risk aversion waned following some progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and senior U.S. officials will travel to Shanghai on Monday for face-to-face trade meetings with Chinese officials, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources. The greenback also firmed after Washington on Tuesday reached a deal to lift government borrowing limits. Analysts reckon increased U.S. borrowing would tighten the supply of money in the country's banking system and in turn support the dollar "In addition to the euro's weakness ahead of the ECB meeting, the dollar is supported as market participants continue to discount the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points at next week's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting," said Ayako Sera, senior market economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust. Speculation that the Federal Reserve would lower rates by 50 bps at its July 30-31 meeting had increased earlier this month following comments from some senior Fed officials, but investors now see a shallower 25 bp cut as more likely.
  • Oil prices moved higher on Wednesday in Asia amid falling U.S. crude stockpiles. Lingering concerns on tensions in the Middle East also supported the markets.U.S. crude stocks fell more than expected in the week to July 19, declining by 11 million barrels to 449 million, the American Petroleum Institute reported overnight. That compared with analysts' expectations of a decrease of 4 million barrels. Analysts expect the Energy Information Administration to announce later in the day a sixth-straight weekly drawdown of crude. They expect a decline of 4.01 million barrels for the week ended July 19, after a total of more than 30 million drawn over five previous weeks. In other news, the U.S. Navy said it may have downed a second Iranian drone last week, although Iran said it did not receive any information about losing a drone. Oil prices were sent higher this week amid intensifying tensions in the Middle East after Iran seized a British-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz last Friday On the Sino-U.S. trade front, CNBC reported that U.S. officials will travel to Beijing sometime between this coming Friday and August 1.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
24th July 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,424-1,429 1,436 1,450-1,457
Silver-XAG 16.60-16.90 17.50 17.90
Crude Oil 57.50-58.10 59.20 60.50-61.00
EURO/USD 1.1150-1.1180 1.1210 1.1240-1.1280
GBP/USD 1.2500-1.2550 1.2600 1.2650-1.2700
USD/JPY 108.50 109.05 109.50-110.15

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
24th July 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,413-1,405 1,390 1,380
Silver-XAG 16.20-15.90 15.50 15.25-15.05
Crude Oil 56.90-56.05 55.50 54.90-54.00
EURO/USD 1.1130-1.1106 1.0950 1.0905
GBP/USD 1.2410 1.2350 1.2300-1.2250
USD/JPY 108.00-107.60 107.00 106.50-106.00

Intra-Day Strategy (24th July 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

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Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1429.95/oz and low of US$1414.15/oz. Gold down by 0.511% at US$1417.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1303) and breakage below will call for 1296-1288. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1413-1382 with risk below 1390, targeting 1429-1436-1450 and 1457-1464. Sell below 1424-1464 keeping stop loss closing above 1470, targeting 1424 and 1409-1400-1390.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,413-1,405
S2     1,390
S3     1,380
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,424-1,429
R2     1,436
R3     1,450-1,457

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.388

Buy
20-DMA   1413.15 Buy
50-DMA  

1361.41

Buy
100-DMA   1326.56 Buy
200-DMA   1295.79 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   33.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   16.175 Buy

Silver - XAG

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Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$16.52/oz and low of US$16.16/oz. Silver settled up by 0.416% at US$16.38/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (15.00), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.20-14.50 targeting 16.50-16.90 and 17.50-17.90; stop breakage below 14.50. Sell below 16.50-17.90 with stop loss above 17.90; targeting 16.20-15.90-15.50 and 15.05-14.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.20-15.90
S2     15.50
S3     15.25-15.05

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.60-16.90
R2     17.50
R3     17.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   71.196 Buy
20-DMA   15.28 Sell
50-DMA   14.93 Buy
100-DMA   15.02 Buy
200-DMA   15.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.246 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.1495 Buy

Oil - WTI

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Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$57.39/bbl, intraday low of US$55.72/bbl and settled up by 1.718% to close at US$57.10/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 57.50-60.50 with stop loss at 60.50; targeting 56.90-56.05 and 55.50-54.50-54.00. Buy above 56.90-54.00 with risk daily closing below 54.00 and targeting 57.50-58.10-59.20 and 60.50-61.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     56.90-56.05
S2     55.50
S3     54.90-54.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     57.50-58.10
R2     59.20
R3     60.50-61.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.821 Sell
20-DMA   57.87 Sell
50-DMA   57.07 Sell
100-DMA   59.31 Sell
200-DMA   57.28 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   50.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.115 Sell

EUR/USD

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EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1145/EUR, high of US$1.1209/EUR and settled the day down by 0.506% to close at US$1.1151/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.1349), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1320-1.1280. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1130-1.0905 with risk below 1.0905, targeting 1.1150-1.1210-1.1240 and 1.1280-1.1320. Sell below 1.1150-1.1280 targeting 1.1130-1.1105 and 1.0950-1.0905 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1105.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1130-1.1106
S2     1.0950
S3     1.0905

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1150-1.1180
R2     1.1210
R3     1.1240-1.1280

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.376 Buy
20-DMA   1.1248 Sell
50-DMA   1.1241 Sell
100-DMA   1.1243 Sell
200-DMA   1.1311 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   5.157 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0001 Buy

GBP/USD

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GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2417/GBP, high of US$1.2481/GBP and settled the day down by 0.060% to close at US$1.2473/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2500-1.2790 with targets at 1.2450-1.2350 and 1.2300-1.2250 top should be below 1.2790. Buy above 1.2500-1.2250 with targets 1.2600 and 1.2650-1.2700-1.2750 with stop loss closing below 1.2250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2410
S2     1.2350
S3     1.2300-1.2250

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2500-1.2550
R2     1.2600
R3     1.2650-1.2700

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.198

Buy
20-DMA   1.2528 Sell
50-DMA   1.2616 Sell
100-DMA   1.2843 Sell
200-DMA   1.2865 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   33.175 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

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USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY107.81/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.28/USD and settled the day up by 0.325% at JPY108.20/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (110.64), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.00-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 107.60-107.00 and 106.50-106.00. Long positions above 108.00-106.00 with targets of 108.00-108.50-109.05 and 109.50-110.00 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.00-107.60
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-106.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.50
R2     109.05
R3     109.50-110.15

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.651 Buy
20-DMA   108.07 Sell
50-DMA   108.46 Sell
100-DMA   109.79 Buy
200-DMA   110.60 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   62.58 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.195 Buy

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