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Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar traded lower in early European trade Tuesday, although losses are minor as traders await direction from the latest U.S. consumer confidence readings but also from the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole retreat later in the week. The market has adopted a ‘risk-on’ stance Tuesday, helped by the aggressive stance from the Trump administration towards the authorization of potential Covid-19 treatments, as well as trade talks occurring between the U.S. and China aimed at resolving concerns around the Phase 1 trade deal reached between the two countries in January. However, traders are waiting for more concrete guidance after the greenback's recent sharp fall - it's lost over 4% in the last two months. The U.S. August consumer confidence readings, due later in the day, are expected to rise slightly, but it’s the Fed that attracts the most attention. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech at Thursday’s virtual Jackson Hole symposium, and is widely expected to flag a looser policy in the future, with tweaks to how it defines its inflation target. Elsewhere, EUR/USD gained 0.1% to 1.1801, as the euro pushed higher against the greenback, helped by an upward-revision to an earlier estimate of German economic output. Earlier Tuesday, data showed the German economy contracted by a record 9.7% in the second quarter. A dreadful number, but still better than the first reading that said the economy shrank by 10.1% in the period. Investors will now look to the release of Germany's Ifo Business Climate index, due at 0800 GMT, where a small rise is expected. The dollar was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, amid the wait for U.S. August consumer confidence readings, due later in the day, which are expected to rise slightly, and firmer guidance from the U.S. Federal Reserve on the U.S. economic recovery from COVID-19. The GBP/USD pair edged up 0.20% to 1.3089, despite the latest round of Brexit talks between the U.K. and the European Union showing little signs of progress Elsewhere across the pond, disappointing data from the European Union, if coupled with the same from the U.S., could see the euro move in either direction. Sterling was pressured back below $1.31 to last fetch $1.3071, and not helping was lack of progress in the latest round of Brexit talks with the European Union. Besides Powell's speech, investors are also looking ahead to Germany's IFO Business Climate index, due at 0800 GMT, and expecting a small rise. U.S. August consumer confidence figures are also due at 1400 GMT and another small rise is expected. Softer-than-forecast data on both continents last week suggests there is downside risk on the data, which could send the euro in either direction.
  • Crude oil prices were mixed on Tuesday as traders weighed massive production cuts in the U.S. Gulf Coast from Tropical Storms Marco and Laura against rising coronavirus cases in Asia and Europe. Energy companies moved to cut production at U.S. Gulf Coast oil refineries on Monday after shutting 82% of the area's offshore crude oil output as the rare double-storm assault on key U.S. oil regions threatens to bring days of heavy rains and strong winds this week. Producers have shut more than 1.5 million barrels per day of Gulf Coast offshore oil production, nearly 14% of the nation's total output. A top U.S. infectious diseases expert warned on Monday that rushing out vaccines could undermine trials of other promising candidates, following a boost to markets after U.S. regulators authorised the use of blood plasma from recovered COVID-19 patients as a treatment option. Europe is also seeing a rise in coronavirus cases while the first documented case of human re-infection with COVID-19 was reported with a man in Hong Kong catching the virus again some four months after first being infected. Elsewhere, top U.S. and Chinese officials, who spoke by phone on Monday, see progress on resolving issues over the Phase 1 trade deal agreed in January and both sides are committed to the success of the agreement, the U.S. Trade Representative's Office said. Meanwhile U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely fell for a fifth straight week, while refined product inventories also decreased last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. Oil was mixed on Tuesday morning in Asia, with production cuts in the U.S. Gulf Coast and the world’s first case of COVID-19 reinfection in Hong Kong putting a damper on investor sentiment. Producers moved to cut production at Gulf Coast oil refineries on Monday, after the double-whammy of hurricane Marco and tropical storm Laura threatened the area, forcing the shutdown of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), or 82%, of the area’s offshore crude oil output. Investors now await the American Petroleum Institute (API)’s prediction of crude oil supply, due later in the day. Meanwhile, researchers at the University of Hong Kong (HKU) said that a man in his 30s was reinfected with COVID-19 four months after his initial infection. The world’s first case of reinfection has spurred fears over the fragile fuel demand recovery, as worries over patients’ shorter-than-expected immunity after recovering from the virus increase.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
25th August 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,940-1,954 1,971 1,989-2,010
Silver-XAG 27.00-28.10 29.00 29.80-30.50
Crude Oil 43.15 44.10 45.00-46.30
EURO/USD 1.1850-1.1900 1.1955 1.2000-1.2050
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3190 1.3250 1.3290-1.3350
USD/JPY 106.10-106.90 107.30 108.10-108.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
25th August 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1924 1,915 1,901-1,885
Silver-XAG 26.10 26.55 25.10-24.30
Crude Oil 42.00-41.00 40.60 39.50-38.50
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1730 1.1690 1.1610-1.1550
GBP/USD 1.3050 1.3015 1.2950-1.2870
USD/JPY 105.50 104.90 104.30-103.90

Intra-Day Strategy (25th August 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

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Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1961.81/oz and low of US$1923.69/oz. Gold down 0.600% at US$1927.48/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1642) and breakage below will call for 1600. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1924-1885 with risk below 1885, targeting 1940-1954-1971 and 1989-2010-2021. Sell below 1940-2010 keeping stop loss closing above 2010, targeting 1926-1900-1889 and 1881-1866.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1924
S2     1,915
S3     1,901-1,885
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,940-1,954
R2     1,971
R3     1,989-2,010

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.043

Buy
20-DMA   1973.30 Buy
50-DMA  

1862.41

Buy
100-DMA   1785.31 Buy
200-DMA   1665.82 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   50.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   35.45 Sell

Silver - XAG

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Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$27.32/oz and low of US$26.25/oz settled down by 0.738% at US$26.59/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20DMA (21.60), breakage below will lead to 19.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 27.10-22.50 targeting 28.20-29.00 and 29.80-30.50, stop breakage below 22.50. Sell below 28.00-30.00 with stop loss above 30.00; targeting 27.20-26.10-25.00 and 24.30-23.35.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     26.10
S2     26.55
S3     25.10-24.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     27.00-28.10
R2     29.00
R3     29.80-30.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.514 Buy
20-DMA   24.90 Buy
50-DMA   20.81 Buy
100-DMA   18.30 Buy
200-DMA   17.66 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.914 Buy

Oil - WTI

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Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US42.91/bbl, intraday low of US$42.26/bbl and settled down by 0.244% to close at US$42.37/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 42.00-38.50 with risk daily closing below 36.65 and targeting 43.10-44.10-45.00 and 46.30. Sell in between 43.00-46.30 with stop loss at 46.30; targeting 42.00-41.00-40.60 and 39.50-38.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     42.00-41.00
S2     40.60
S3     39.50-38.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     43.15
R2     44.10
R3     45.00-46.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.099 Sell
20-DMA   41.06 Buy
50-DMA   39.57 Buy
100-DMA   32.50 Buy
200-DMA   43.09 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   62.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.738 Sell

EUR/USD

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EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1783/EUR, high of US$1.1849/EUR and settled the day down by 0.525% to close at US$1.1783/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1800-1.1540 with risk below 1.1540, targeting 1.1850-1.1900-1.1950 and 1.2000-1.2100. Sell below 1.1850-1.2050 targeting 1.1800-1.1730-1.1650 and 1.1610-1.1500 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1800-1.1730
S2     1.1690
S3     1.1610-1.1550

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1850-1.1900
R2     1.1955
R3     1.2000-1.2050

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.032 Buy
20-DMA   1.1811 Buy
50-DMA   1.1531 Buy
100-DMA   1.1253 Buy
200-DMA   1.1145 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   28.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

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GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3052/GBP, high of US$1.3148/GBP and settled the day down by 0.124% to close at US$1.3062/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3190-1.3450 with targets at 1.3100-1.3050 and 1.3015-1.2950-1.2870 stop-loss should be 1.3450. Buy above 1.3100-1.2840 with targets 1.3190-1.3250-1.3290 and 1.3350-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2840.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3050
S2     1.3015
S3     1.2950-1.2870

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3100-1.3190
R2     1.3250
R3     1.3290-1.3350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

70.904

Buy
20-DMA   1.2871 Buy
50-DMA   1.2666 Buy
100-DMA   1.2501 Sell
200-DMA   1.2705 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   52.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

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USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY105.68/USD and made an intraday high of JPY105.98/USD and settled the day up by 0.207% at JPY105.96/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 106.00-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 105.50-104.90-104.50 and 103.90-103.10. Long positions above 105.50-103.00 with targets of 106.00-106.50-106.90 and 107.90-108.40-109.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     105.50
S2     104.90
S3     104.30-103.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     106.10-106.90
R2     107.30
R3     108.10-108.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.904 Buy
20-DMA   107.21 Sell
50-DMA   107.45 Sell
100-DMA   107.53 Sell
200-DMA   108.36 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   44.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1448 Sell

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