Just Perfect Markets

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, with a triple menace of retreating yields, disappointing U.S. economic data and a drop in safe-haven demand dampening investor sentiment. Even an overnight tech rally in U.S. markets could not convince investors to give up their bearish positions. Net bearish bets on the greenback rose to their highest levels since May 2011 during the previous week, with spot trade over the past few days suggesting that the levels have increased since. U.S. data released on Tuesday also disappointed investors, with the Empire State Manufacturing (ESM) index diving to 3.7 in August and missing the forecasted 15 points prepared by Investing.com as well as July's reading of 17.20. The USD/CNY pair was flat, inching up 0.02% to 6.9303. Investors are keeping an eye on the latest round of U.S.-China tensions after the U.S. Commerce Department on Monday further restricted Chinese tech company Huawei’s access to commercially available chips. The department added 38 Huawei affiliates in 21 countries to an economic blacklist, with these latest measures in addition to the restrictions announced by the U.S. in May. The GBP/USD pair gained 0.24% to 1.3134, with the U.K and the European Union are scheduled to commence the latest round of Brexit negotiations on Tuesday.
  • The dollar teetered near milestone lows on Tuesday, after a triple blow of retreating yields, soft U.S. economic data and a dip in safe-haven demand exerted broad selling pressure. Against the euro, Aussie, pound, Swiss franc and yuan it is poised to re-test multi month or multi year troughs made earlier in the month, though moves in morning trade were small as Wednesday's release of the Federal Reserve minutes looms on the horizon. Investors have been relieved by a delay in the review of the U.S.-China trade deal this week, which has left the agreement standing and reinforced a belief that the trade relationship can hold even amidst conflict on multiple other fronts. A fresh rally in tech stocks added to the positive mood, and together with a pullback in U.S. yields and a weak reading in a U.S. manufacturing survey has many traders sticking to their bearish convictions on the dollar. Net bearish bets on the U.S. dollar grew to their largest since May 2011 last week and spot trade in recent days suggest the position has only grown further since. OCBC called out soft data, the political impasse holding up U.S. fiscal stimulus and a "limited appetite for interpreting Sino-U.S. relations as being in an outright downward spiral," as backing the dollar's gloomy outlook. On the data front the New York Fed's Empire State business conditions index tumbled to 3.7 in August from 17.2 in July - far lower than the 15 points forecast by a Reuters survey. Delinquency rates for residential mortgages also posted the largest quarterly increase on record. Investors expect the release of U.S. Federal Reserve minutes on Wednesday to possibly determine the next moves. The British pound was stalled around $1.1311 as investors are watching the latest round of Brexit negotiations, with the future of London's financial institutions' access to the European market in focus.
  • Oil prices slipped on Tuesday, though they mostly held onto overnight gains after OPEC+ said the producer grouping is almost fully complying with output cuts to support prices amid a drop in demand for fuels due to the coronavirus pandemic. Compliance with OPEC+ oil output cuts was seen at around 97% in July, two OPEC+ sources told Reuters. The oil producers curbed output by record levels to reduce worldwide inventories, as demand collapsed from the pandemic. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies known as OPEC+ in August reduced their agreed cuts to 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) from 9.7 million bpd previously as prices started picking up in recent months. Japan, the world's third-biggest economy is likely to contract more than previously expected due to the pandemic, analysts said. The U.S. Energy Information Administration last week reduced its global oil demand forecast, suggesting a smaller than previously expected reduction in global inventories. Oil edged down on Tuesday morning in Asia, even after OPEC+ said on Monday that the organization is in almost full compliance with output cuts in place to support the black liquid as the COVID-19 outbreak continues to decrease demand. OPEC+’s joint technical committee (JTC), made up of technical experts assessing the implementation of the cuts, convened yesterday, with the compliance with July’s output cuts reportedly at around 97%. OPEC+ in August eased the agreed cuts to 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) from the previous 9.7 million bpd agreed to earlier in the year, as the COVID-19 outbreak caused a collapse in demand. But some investors remained optimistic that prices will remain stable. Investors will be looking to OPEC’s joint ministerial monitoring committee (JMMC), whose meeting was postponed to August 19, for further production clues. They will also be looking at the American Petroleum Institute (API)’s crude oil demand forecast, due later in the day.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
18th August 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 2,010-2,021 2,035 2,050-2,065
Silver-XAG 28.10-29.00 29.80 30.50-31.00
Crude Oil 43.15 44.10 45.00-46.30
EURO/USD 1.1900 1.1955-1.2000 1.2050
GBP/USD 1.3170-1.3210 1.3290 1.3350-1.3400
USD/JPY 106.10-106.90 107.30 108.10-108.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
18th August 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,989-1,981 1,966 1,940-1920
Silver-XAG 27.00-26.10 26.55 25.10-24.30
Crude Oil 42.00-41.00 40.60 39.50-38.50
EURO/USD 1.1850-1.1800 1.1730 1.1690-1.1650
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3050 1.3015 1.2950-1.2900
USD/JPY 105.50 104.90 104.30-103.90

Intra-Day Strategy (18th August 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

Just Perfect Markets

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1990.66/oz and low of US$1929.16/oz. Gold up 1.943% at US$1984.13/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1642) and breakage below will call for 1600. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1989-1900 with risk below 1900, targeting 2010-2021 and 2035-2050-2065. Sell below 2010-2065 keeping stop loss closing above 2065, targeting 1989-1981-1966 and 1940-1920-1900.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,989-1,981
S2     1,966
S3     1,940-1920
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     2,010-2,021
R2     2,035
R3     2,050-2,065

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.043

Buy
20-DMA   1956.56 Buy
50-DMA  

1843.89

Buy
100-DMA   1770.91 Buy
200-DMA   1655.02 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   46.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   34.45 Sell

Silver - XAG

Just Perfect Markets

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$27.56/oz and low of US$25.79/oz settled up by 2.98% at US$27.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20DMA (21.60), breakage below will lead to 19.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 27.10-22.50 targeting 28.20-29.00 and 29.80-30.50, stop breakage below 22.50. Sell below 28.00-30.00 with stop loss above 30.00; targeting 27.20-26.10-25.00 and 24.30-23.35.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     27.00-26.10
S2     26.55
S3     25.10-24.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     28.10-29.00
R2     29.80
R3     30.50-31.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.514 Buy
20-DMA   24.90 Buy
50-DMA   20.81 Buy
100-DMA   18.30 Buy
200-DMA   17.66 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.914 Buy

Oil - WTI

Just Perfect Markets

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US43.20/bbl, intraday low of US$42.07/bbl and settled up by 1.186% to close at US$42.97/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 42.00-38.50 with risk daily closing below 36.65 and targeting 43.10-44.10-45.00 and 46.30. Sell in between 43.00-46.30 with stop loss at 46.30; targeting 42.00-41.00-40.60 and 39.50-38.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     42.00-41.00
S2     40.60
S3     39.50-38.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     43.15
R2     44.10
R3     45.00-46.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.099 Sell
20-DMA   41.06 Buy
50-DMA   39.57 Buy
100-DMA   32.50 Buy
200-DMA   43.09 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   62.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.738 Sell

EUR/USD

Just Perfect Markets

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1828/EUR, high of US$1.1880/EUR and settled the day up by 0.247% to close at US$1.1869/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1800-1.1540 with risk below 1.1540, targeting 1.1850-1.1900 and 1.1950-1.2000. Sell below 1.1800-1.2050 targeting 1.1800-1.1720-1.1650 and 1.1500-1.1450-1.1400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1850-1.1800
S2     1.1730
S3     1.1690-1.1650

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1900
R2     1.1955-1.2000
R3     1.2050

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.032 Buy
20-DMA   1.1713 Buy
50-DMA   1.1456 Buy
100-DMA   1.1190 Buy
200-DMA   1.1169 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   36.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

Just Perfect Markets

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3073/GBP, high of US$1.3120/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0970% to close at US$1.3102/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3190-1.3350 with targets at 1.3065-1.3015-1.2950 and 1.2870-1.2760-1.2680 stop-loss should be 1.3100. Buy above 1.3100-1.2840 with targets 1.3100-1.3160-1.3200 and 1.3290-1.3350 with stop loss closing below 1.2400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3100-1.3050
S2     1.3015
S3     1.2950-1.2900

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3170-1.3210
R2     1.3290
R3     1.3350-1.3400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

70.904

Buy
20-DMA   1.2871 Buy
50-DMA   1.2666 Buy
100-DMA   1.2501 Sell
200-DMA   1.2705 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   52.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

Just Perfect Markets

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY105.93/USD and made an intraday high of JPY106.64/USD and settled the day down by 0.511% at JPY106.99/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 106.00-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 105.50-104.90-104.50 and 103.90-103.10. Long positions above 105.50-103.00 with targets of 106.00-106.50-106.90 and 107.90-108.40-109.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     105.50
S2     104.90
S3     104.30-103.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     106.10-106.90
R2     107.30
R3     108.10-108.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.904 Buy
20-DMA   107.21 Sell
50-DMA   107.45 Sell
100-DMA   107.53 Sell
200-DMA   108.36 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   44.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1448 Sell

Just Perfect Markets